🔗 Share this article

Shutdowns have become a recurring feature of US politics – however the current situation appears particularly intractable due to shifting political forces along with deep-seated animosity between the two parties.

Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 people likely to be placed on unpaid leave since Republicans and Democrats can't agree regarding budget legislation.

Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse continue to fall short, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path in this instance as each side – including the President – perceive advantages in maintaining their positions.

These are several key factors that make things feel different currently.

1. For Democrats, it's about Trump – beyond healthcare issues

Democratic supporters has been demanding over recent periods that their party adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Well now Democratic leaders has a chance to show they have listened.

Earlier this year, Senate leader faced strong criticism after supporting a Republican spending bill and averting a shutdown early this year. This time he's digging in.

This presents an opportunity for the Democratic party to demonstrate they can take back certain authority from an administration that has moved aggressively with determined action.

Refusing to back the Republican spending plan comes with political risk as citizens generally may become impatient as the dispute drags on and impacts accumulate.

Democratic representatives are using the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about expiring health insurance subsidies together with Republican-approved federal health program reductions affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.

Additionally, they're attempting to curtail executive utilization of presidential authority to rescind or withhold money approved by Congress, a practice demonstrated with foreign aid and other programmes.

2. For Republicans, they see potential

The administration leader along with a senior aide have made little secret their perspective that they smell a chance to advance further reductions to the federal workforce that have featured in the Republican's second presidency so far.

The President himself said last week that the shutdown had afforded him an "unprecedented opportunity", and that he would look to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".

Administration officials said it would be left with a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. An administration spokesperson described this as "fiscal sanity".

The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, but the White House has been in discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, or OMB, which is headed by the key official.

The administration's financial chief has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for Democratic-run parts of the country, including New York City and Chicago.

Third, Trust Is Lacking between both parties

While previous shutdowns typically involved extended negotiations among political opponents in an effort to get government services running again, currently there seems minimal cooperative willingness for compromise presently.

Instead, there is rancour. Political tensions continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.

House Speaker a Republican, charged opposition members of not being serious toward resolution, and holding out during discussions "to get political cover".

Meanwhile, the Senate leader levelled the same accusation against their counterparts, saying that a Republican promise regarding health funding talks after operations resume can not be taken seriously.

The President himself has inflamed the situation through sharing a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader along with another senior in the House, in which the representative is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and a moustache.

The affected legislator with party colleagues denounced this as discriminatory, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.

4. The US economy is fragile

Analysts expect about 40% of government employees – over 800,000 workers – to be put on unpaid leave due to the shutdown.

This will reduce consumer expenditure – and also have wider ramifications, including halted environmental approvals, patent approvals, interrupted vendor payments and other kinds of government activity connected to commercial interests comes to a halt.

A shutdown also injects fresh instability within economic systems currently experiencing disruption by changes ranging from trade measures, previous budget reductions, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.

Analysts estimate potential reduction of approximately 0.2% off US economic growth for each week it lasts.

However, economic activity generally rebounds the majority of interrupted operations following resolution, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.

That could be one reason why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.

Conversely, experts indicate that if administration officials implement his threat of mass firings, the damage could be more long-lasting.